Suchergebnisse

In the winter of 1941-1942 26 professional people & public figures tried to predict the course of events in the following decade & the state of the world in 1952. These predictions were obtained by H. Cantril by requesting the R to 'write out your general predictions of how things will turn out within the next 10 yrs.' A summary of the findings of an over-all content analysis & a rank ordering of the accurate predictions are presented. Data from letters antedating & post-dating Pearl Harbor were coded separately. A prediction involves the selection of past experiences which seem to be relevant to the developing sequence of events, but it is always a guess & successful prediction depends on an ability to anticipate novelty. Immediate experience, such as Pearl Harbor, tends to influence the nature of prediction, its direction & emphasis. Examples of the wishfulfilling character of predictions are given. Frustration only sometimes appears valuable in prognostication. The characteristics of good prediction are noted. All of the foreign-born people in the sample were successful predictors; these are seen as people who were prevented from growing strong pol'al & ideological roots. The successful predictors were characterized by a wide scope of experience & a broad cultural background. Various predictions are closely interrelated, & the 2 most accurate documents pose several alternative sequences rather than oversimplifying. Good predictions are cautious since they take emergence into account & they are not strongly motivated. It is finally noted that a prediction may be correct because the predictor's premises are valid or because of the irrelevant fact that his att's & wishes happen to coincide with the course of events. J. D. Twight.

A 'crisis situation' occurs when the mechanisms (rationalization, etc) serving to support belief systems become ineffective, & the individual is left with an 'invalidated or inoperative ideology.' Typical circumstances in which this takes place are (1) deprivation & frustration combined with inactivity, isolation, & long periods of self-communion; (2) the presentation of evidence which sharply invalidates the system of beliefs; & (3) traumatic experiences which bear no necessary relationship to the belief system. Examples of such situations & the mechanisms & process which they set in motion are discussed including: soldiers in wartime, Nazi leaders in the Nuremberg Trials, Communist Party members & sympathizers, etc. K. Geiger.

How do American "hate" groups operate, what are the most common themes in their "letters to the editor," and why do they single out a particular newspaper for attack? An assistant professor of psychology and two of his colleagues at Michigan State University analyze an Oregon editor's mail to find the answers.